Assessment of Characteristics and Conditions before the End of Lockdown

David San-Martín-Roldán, Francisca Rojo-Lazo, Aracelis Calzadilla-Núñez, Pablo San-Martín-Roldán, Patricia Díaz-Calzadilla, Víctor P Díaz-Narváez


After months of blockades and restriction, the decision of the best time to end the lockdown after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is the big question for health rectors. This study aimed to evaluate the characteristics and conditions for ending the blockade after the first wave of COVID-19. Data on the variables of interest were subjected to linear and non-linear regression studies to determine the curve that best explains the data. The coefficient of determination, the standard deviation of y in x, and the observed curve of the confidence interval were estimated. Regression which was estimated subsequently revealed the trend curve. The study found that all dependent variables tend to decrease over time in a quadratic fashion, except for the variable for new cases. In general, the R2 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) estimates were satisfactory: gradual and cautious steps should be taken before ending the lockdown. The results suggested that a surveillance of crucial indicators (e.g., incidence, prevalence, and PCR test positivity) should be maintained before lockdown is terminated. Moreover, the findings indicated that long-term preparations should be made to contain future waves of new cases.


COVID-19, forecasting, SARS-CoV2

Full Text:



 1. Rawson T, Brewer T, Veltcheva D, Huntingford C, Bonsall MB. How and when to end the COVID-19 lockdown: an optimization approach. Frontiers in Public Health 2020; 8: 262.

 2. Ng WL. To lockdown? When to peak? Will there be an end? A macroeconomic analysis on COVID-19 epidemic in the United States. Journal of Macroeconomics 2020; 65: 103230.

 3. Adhikari R SP, Meng S, Wu YJ, et al. Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control of coronavirus disease [COVID-19] during the early outbreak period: a scoping review. Infectious Diseases of Poverty. 2020; 9 (1): 29.

 4. Confirmed Cases by country/Region/Sovereignty. COVID-19 dashboard by the center for systems science and engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University; 2020.

 5. Basu D, Salvatore M, Ray D, Kleinsasser M, Purkayastha S, Bhattacharyya R, et al. A comprehensive public health evaluation of lockdown as a non-pharmaceutical intervention on COVID-19 spread in India: national trends masking state-level variations. medRxiv: The Preprint Server for Health Sciences; 2020.

 6. Nicola M, Alsafi Z, Sohrabi C, Kerwan A, Al-Jabir A, Iosifidis C, et al. The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic [COVID-19]: a review. International Journal of Surgery. 2020; 78:185-93.

 7. Dubey S, Biswas P, Ghosh R, Chatterjee S, Dubey MJ, Chatterjee S, et al. Psychosocial impact of COVID-19. Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome. 2020; 14 (5): 779-88.

 8. Base de Datos C-19. Ministerio de ciencia, tecnología, conocimiento e innovación de Chile; 2020.

 9. Díaz-Narváez V, et al. Which curve provides the best explanation of the growth in confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile?. Revista LatinoAmericana de Enfermagem 2020; 28: e3346.

 10. Sjödin H, Wilder-Smith A, Osman S, Farooq Z, Rocklöv J. Only strict quarantine measures can curb the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Italy, 2020. Eurosurveillance. 2020; 25 (13): 2000280

 11. COVID-19 in Germany; 2020.

 12. de Covid S - 19 En españa. Ministerio de Sanidad 2020; 2020.

 13. Infection Au nouveau coronavirus [SARS-CoV-2], COVID-19, France et Monde. Santé Publique France 2020; 2020.

 14. COVID-19: situation report update at 5 Jul 2020; 2020.

 15. Current information about COVID-19 (novel coronavirus). Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu 2020; 2020.

 16. Department of Health and Social Care and Public Health England. Number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and risk in the UK; 2020.

 17. Federal Ministry Republic of Austria Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection. Official c - 19 dashboard-explanatory notes; 2020.

 18. Website of the Republic of Poland. Coronavirus: information and recommendations; 2020.

 19. de Dados D, da Saúde D-G. Ministério Da Saúde; 2020.

 20. New coronavirus; 2020.

 21. National Health Commission of the PRC. Daily briefing; 2020.

 22. Cases in Korea. Coronavirus Disease-19, Republic of Korea 2020; 2020.

 23. Australian Government Department of Health. Coronavirus (COVID19) at a glance infographic collection; 2020.

 24. COVID-19 (novel coronavirus). Ministry of Health Manatū Hauora 2020; 2020.

 25. Plan Nacional coronavirus. Ministerio de Salud Pública; 2020.

 26. Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford. Policy responses to the coronavirus pandemic: statistics and research. Our world in data;2020.

 27. Garg S, Basu S, Rustagi R, Borle A. Primary health care facility preparedness for outpatient service provision during the COVID-19 pandemic in India: cross-sectional study. JMIR Public Health and Surveillance. 2020; 6 (2): e19927.

 28. Kwok KO, Florence L, Wan In W, Samuek YSW, Julian WTT. Herd immunity - estimating the level required to halt the COVID-19 epidemics in affected countries. Journal of Infection. 2020 Jun; 80 (6):e32-3.

 29. Zhongjie L, Qiulan C, Luzhao F, Rodewald L, Yinyin X, Hailiang Y, et al. China CDC COVID-19 emergency response strategy team. Active case finding with case management: the key to tackling the COVID-19 pandemic. Lancet. 2020; 396 (10243): 63-70.

 30. Saez M, Tobias A, Varga D, Barceló MA. Effectiveness of the measures to flatten the epidemic curve of COVID-19. The case of Spain. Science of the Total Environment. 2020; 727: 138761.



  • There are currently no refbacks.