1. Home
  2. Special Issue Volume 1, 2020
  3. Suraya

The Impact of Large-scale Social Restrictions on the Incidence of COVID-19 : A Case Study of Four Provinces in Indonesia

Izza Suraya, Mochamad Iqbal Nurmansyah, Emma Rachmawati, Badra Al Aufa, Ibrahim Isa Koire

Abstract


The Indonesian government has chosen to implement large-scale social restrictions, or Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB), to minimize the spread of COVID-19. PSBB is a government policy aimed at restricting the internal movement of people in a bid to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. This study aims to assess the impact of such large-scale social restriction measures on the incidence of COVID-19 cases in four provinces of Indonesia. Time series analysis was used to describe trends in COVID-19 cases by using surveillance data from the Ministry of Health of Indonesia. Quasi-Poisson regression with an interaction model was used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR), and this was calculated to compare the incidence rate before and during PSBB implementation. The trend in COVID-19 cases in the provinces of West Java, East Java, Banten, and Jakarta has continued to fluctuate. These four provinces have continued to experience a significant increase in the COVID-19 incidence rate ratio after the implementation of the first and second PSBB periods compared to the  period before PSBB implementation. Lack of proper implementation of the large-scale social restrictions has led to PSBB’s ineffectiveness in reducing the number of COVID-19 cases in each of the provinces.

Keywords


COVID-19, incidence rate ratio, mobility restriction, time series analysis

Full Text:

PDF

References


 1. New England Complex Systems Institute. Which countries do best in beating covid-19? [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 May 16]. Available from: https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries#winning

 2. Gugus Tugas Percepatan Penanganan COVID-19. Data Sebaran [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 May 2]. Available from: https://covid19.go.id/

 3. ASEAN Biodiaspora Virtual Center (ABVC). Risk Assessment for International Dissemination of COVID-19 to the ASEAN Region [Internet]. 2020. Available from: https://asean.org/storage/2020/02/BioDiaspora-16-COVID-19-Risk-Assessment_ASEAN-BioDiaspora-Regional-Virtual-Center_06Mar2020.pdf

 4. Adhikari SP, Meng S, Wu YJ, Mao YP, Ye RX, Wang QZ, et al. Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early outbreak period: A scoping review. Infect Dis Poverty. 2020;9(29).

 5. Ferguson NM, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Imai N, Ainslie K, Baguelin M, et al. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand [Internet]. London; 2020. Available from: https://doi.org/10.25561/77482

 6. European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. Guidelines for the use of non-pharmaceutical measures to delay and mitigate the impact of 2019-nCoV [Internet]. Technical Report. Solna; 2020. Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/guidelines-use-non-pharmaceutical-measures-delay-and-mitigate-impact-2019-ncov

 7. Anderson RM, Heesterbeek H, Klinkenberg D, Hollingsworth TD. How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? Lancet. 2020;395(10228):931–4.

 8. Hale, Thomas; Angrist, Noam; Kira, Beatriz; Petherick, Anna; Phillips, Toby; Webster S. “Variation in Government Responses to COVID-19” Version 5.0 [Internet]. 2020. Available from: www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/covidtracke

 9. Pasley J. Here’s how Indonesia — where “ghosts” representing trapped souls are scaring people into maintaining lockdown — went from no cases in early March to having the second highest death rate in Asia [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 May 16]. Available from: https://www.insider.com/photo-indonesia-no-cases-to-second-most-deaths-in-asia-2020-4#on-march-14-the-president-admitted-the-government-had-been-holding-back-information-about-the-coronavirus-because-he-said-we-did-not-want-to-stir-panic-11

 10. The Ministry of Tourism Republic of Indonesia. Large Scale Social Restriction Implementation [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 May 16]. Available from: https://www.indonesia.travel/gb/en/news/large-scale-social-restriction-implementation

 11. Presiden Republik Indonesia. Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar dalam Rangka Percepatan Penangangan Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) [Internet]. Jakarta; 2020. Available from: https://jdih.setkab.go.id/PUUdoc/176085/PP_Nomor_21_Tahun_2020.pdf%0A%0ASumber: https://setkab.go.id/inilah-pp-pembatasan-sosial-berskala-besar-untuk-percepatan-penanganan-covid-19/

 12. Ministry of Health of Indonesia. Pedoman Pembatasan Berskala Besar dalam Rangka Percepatan Penanganan Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) [Internet]. 2020. Available from: https://setkab.go.id/menkes-teken-permenkes-nomor-9-tahun-2020-soal-tata-cara-usulan-psbb/

 13. Ministry of Health of Indonesia. Dashboard Data Kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 Mar 16]. Available from: https://www.kemkes.go.id/article/view/20031900002/Dashboard-Data-Kasus-COVID-19-di-Indonesia.html

 14. Tobías A. Evaluation of the lockdowns for the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy and Spain after one month follow up. Sci Total Environ. 2020;725(July 2020).

 15. Tomar A, Gupta N. Prediction for the spread of COVID-19 in India and effectiveness of preventive measures. Sci Total Environ. 2020;728(August 2020).

 16. Jackson C, Vynnycky E, Hawker J, Olowokure B, Mangtani P. School closures and influenza: Systematic review of epidemiological studies. BMJ Open. 2013;3(2).

 17. Ahmed F, Zviedrite N, Uzicanin A. Effectiveness of workplace social distancing measures in reducing influenza transmission: A systematic review. BMC Public Health. 2018;18(518).

 18. Suryahudaya EG. Mobilitas , Migrasi dan Kebijakan PSBB COVID-19 : Gambaran Terkini Dari Data Facebook Disease Prevention Map [Internet]. Jakarta; 2020. Available from: https://csis.or.id/publications/mobilitas-migrasi-dan-kebijakan-psbb-covid-19-gambaran-terkini-dari-data-facebook-disease-prevention-map

 19. Rahmawati F. PSBB, Kendaraan Masuk Jakarta Masih Tinggi [Internet]. Ayojakarta.com. 2020 [cited 2020 May 18]. Available from: https://www.ayojakarta.com/read/2020/05/05/17005/psbb-kendaraan-masuk-jakarta-masih-tinggi%0A

 20. Daud A. Sejak 13 April, Polda Metro Temukan 36 Ribu Pelanggar PSBB Jadetabek" [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 May 13]. Available from: https://katadata.co.id/berita/2020/04/30/sejak-13-april-polda-metro-temukan-36-ribu-pelanggar-psbb-jadetabek

 21. Daud A. Pemprov Jakarta Tutup Sementara Hampir 200 Perusahaan Pelanggar PSBB [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2020 May 15]. Available from: https://katadata.co.id/berita/2020/05/13/pemprov-jakarta-tutup-sementara-hampir-200-perusahaan-pelanggar-psbb

 22. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Community and institutional public health emergency preparedness synergies — enablers and barriers Case studies on acute gastroenteritis in two EU / EEA Member States [Internet]. 2019. Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/community-and-institutional-public-health-emergency-preparedness-synergies

 23. Moore RC, Lee A, Hancock JT, Halley M, Linos E. Experience with Social Distancing Early in the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States: Implications for Public Health Messaging. medRxiv. 2020;04.08.2005.

 24. Fong MW, Gao H, Wong JY, Xiao J, Shiu EYC, Ryu S, et al. Nonpharmaceutical Measures for Pandemic Influenza in Nonhealthcare Settings-Social Distancing Measures. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020;26(5).




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21109/kesmas.v15i2.3990

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.