Impact of Lockdown in India: A Case Study on Karnataka with International Model

Stelvin Sebastian; Aby Paul; Joel Joby; Sanjo Saijan; Jeeva Joseph; Jobin Kunjumon

doi:10.21109/kesmas.v15i2.3978

Impact of Lockdown in India: A Case Study on Karnataka with International Model

Stelvin Sebastian, Aby Paul, Joel Joby, Sanjo Saijan, Jeeva Joseph, Jobin Kunjumon

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared an epidemic and a global health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO), prompting various countries to implement early and stringent social distancing protocols through lockdown, to flatten the epidemic curve. The objective of our present study was to assess the impacts and effectiveness of the lockdown protocol in Karnataka and Punjab, compared with the implementation of this method in Australia and the United Kingdom (UK). This study involved the collection of data from different authorized databases, in two phases. The first phase included the time starting with the first-reported index case through the 14th day after the declaration of lockdown, for each country. The second phase involved the data collected between the 15th day through the 28th day of the lockdown. The highest doubling rate for cases was observed in Australia, followed by Karnataka and Punjab, whereas the lowest was observed in the UK. Comparisons of the numbers of the samples tested, the mortality rate, and the recovery rate between Karnataka and Punjab, after the implementation of lockdown, revealed a better recovery rate and lower mortality rate in Karnataka than in Punjab. Our study revealed that the implementation of social distancing and lockdown reduced the transmission of the coronavirus and the number of cases reported. However, the effectiveness of lockdown varied among locations, due to demographic and physiological differences.

Keywords

COVID-19, epidemic, lockdown, outbreak, social distancing

Full Text:

PDF

References

1. Suresh v. The 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak- An institutional guidelines. Indian J Anesthesia 2020;64:242-3,DOI:10.4103/ija.IJA_104_20

2. Levush R. India's government response to COVID-19.Library of congress 2020; https://blogs.loc.gov/law/2020/03/falqs-indias-government-response-to-covid-19-novel-coronavirus/

3. Chandrashekhar V.1.3 billion people. A 21day lockdown. Can India curb the coronavirus?2020 Science https://doi:10.1126/science.abc0030

4. Daniyal, S., 2020. India is enforcing the harshest and most extensive COVID 19 lockdown in the world.https://qz.com/india/1828915/indias-coronavirus-lockdown-than-china-italy-pakistan/

5. Paital B, Das K, Parida K S. Inter nation social lockdown versus medical care against COVID 19, a mild environmental insight with special reference to India, Science of the total environment 2020:20;31 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.13891

6. Chaudhury, D.R., 2020. USA announces a $2.9 million package to help India combat COVID-19. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/usa-announces-2-9-million-package-to-help-india-combat-COVID-19

7. Oliveiros B, Caramelo L, Ferreira N C, et al. Role of temperature and humidity in the modulation of the doubling time of Covid19 cases. medRxiv 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031872.this

8. India COVID-19 tracker. https://www.covid19india.org/, 2020. Retrieved: 2020-04-03.

9. COVID 19 Karnataka: health department bulletin.https://covid19.karnataka.gov.in/new-page/Health%20Department%20Bulletin/en

10.Math Insight. Doubling time and half-life of exponential growth and decay. https://mathinsight.org/doubling_time_half_life_discrete

11. Lau H, Khosrawipour V, Kocbach P, Schubert J, et al. The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan containing the COVID 19 outbreak in China, Journal of travel medicine 2020 https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa037

12. Rodriguez M K, Chowell G, Cheung C, Jia D, et al. Doubling time of the COVID 19 epidemic by Chinese province. MedRxiv.2020.

13. Zhang Y, Jiang B, Yuan J, Tao Y. The impact of social distancing and epicenter lockdown on the Covid-19 epidemic in mainland china: A data-driven SEIQR study.2020

14. Containment plan for the large outbreak - MoHFW 2020 .https://www.mohfw.gov.in ›

15. Lockdown Exit Strategy -Punjab 2020.https://invest-india-revamp-static-files.s3.ap-south-1.amazonaws.com

16. Update on coronavirus – Australia https://www.pm.gov.au/media/update-coronavirus- measures-08may20

17. Markham, F., Smith, D. & Morphy, F.(2020). Indigenous Australians and the COVID-19 crisis: perspectives on public policy Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Australian National University, Canberra. 2020:1https://doi.org/10.25911/5e8702ec1fba2

18. Coronavirus action plan.A guide to what you can expect across the UK.2020 www.gov.uk/dhsc

19. Sun K, Chen J, Viboud C. Early epidemiological analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019

outbreak based on crowdsourced data: a population-level observational study. Lancet

Digital Health 2020; published online Feb 20. https://doi.org/10.1016/S25897500(20)30026-1

20. Kobie, Nicole (15 February 2020). "This is how the UK is strengthening its coronavirus defenses". Wired UK. ISSN 1357-0978. Archived from the original on 2 March 2020. Retrieved 2 March 2020

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21109/kesmas.v15i2.3978